It is estimated that the CPI rose by 4.5% last month. Under a series of stable price measures of the country, prices have declined slightly in December 2010. Analysts generally predict that in December 2010, the consumer price index (CPI) rose about 4.5%. Under the influence of the base and cold weather, the price situation in January 2011 was not optimistic.
The prices of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce showed a slight fall in the first two weeks of December 2010, the same in the third week, and rose slightly in the fourth week. The domestic edible agricultural products prices were generally stable.
The average price of 29 kinds of main foods in 50 cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in the last, December and the last ten days of December last year also showed that in addition to the obvious decrease in prices from the previous period, 18 kinds of products in the mid-term increased from the previous period, and the prices rose in the later part of the year. The product category increased to 24, but the increase was smaller.
Under the influence of the fall in food prices and the disappearance of the tail-end factor, analysts generally predict that the CPI rose by about 4.4% in December.
Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, also stated that since the end of November last year, the prices of household necessities and other commodities have stabilized or declined, and the CPI growth rate may have peaked. It is expected that it may fall back below 5% in December.
However, the deceleration in the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December 2010 does not mean that the inflationary pressure has been reduced. Under the influence of the base and cold weather, the price situation in January 2011 was not optimistic.
The data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 5th showed that the price of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce last week rose slightly from the previous week (the same below), and has maintained a slight upward trend for two consecutive weeks.
Due to the increase in consumer demand in the vegetable market during the New Year's Day, coupled with the occurrence of freezing temperatures in some areas that affect vegetable production and transportation, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables has increased. The prices of bitter gourd, cucumber, and beans increased by 8.2%, 6.0%, and 3.7%, respectively, while those of storage-tolerant Chinese cabbage, cabbage, and ginger dropped by 3.1%, 2.9%, and 2.0%, respectively.
The increase in residents’ meat consumption and food processing companies’ stocking were positive. The prices of meat and eggs rose slightly. The prices of pork, lamb, eggs, beef and white broilers rose by 0.8%, 0.8%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Food and edible oil retail prices continued to rise, with prices of rice and flour all rising by 0.4%, and soybean oil, peanut oil and rapeseed oil prices rose by 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. During the holiday season, the demand for aquatic products also increased, and the average wholesale price of 8 kinds of aquatic products rose slightly.
Affected by cold weather, prices may not decline in the short term. UBS's latest report said that since the cold winter will continue for some time and the Lunar New Year is approaching, it is expected that food prices will continue to rise in the first quarter of 2011, while the CPI average increase is still higher than 4.5%.
CI Jian Securities chief economist Zhu Jianfang also believes that there will be a strong inflation pressure in early 2011. He said that the increase in food prices in the current round was mainly affected by the expected increase in food prices. Due to the current increase in food prices, companies have increased their stocks of food raw materials, which will increase the pressure on food prices in the short term.
The prices of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce showed a slight fall in the first two weeks of December 2010, the same in the third week, and rose slightly in the fourth week. The domestic edible agricultural products prices were generally stable.
The average price of 29 kinds of main foods in 50 cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in the last, December and the last ten days of December last year also showed that in addition to the obvious decrease in prices from the previous period, 18 kinds of products in the mid-term increased from the previous period, and the prices rose in the later part of the year. The product category increased to 24, but the increase was smaller.
Under the influence of the fall in food prices and the disappearance of the tail-end factor, analysts generally predict that the CPI rose by about 4.4% in December.
Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, also stated that since the end of November last year, the prices of household necessities and other commodities have stabilized or declined, and the CPI growth rate may have peaked. It is expected that it may fall back below 5% in December.
However, the deceleration in the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December 2010 does not mean that the inflationary pressure has been reduced. Under the influence of the base and cold weather, the price situation in January 2011 was not optimistic.
The data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 5th showed that the price of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce last week rose slightly from the previous week (the same below), and has maintained a slight upward trend for two consecutive weeks.
Due to the increase in consumer demand in the vegetable market during the New Year's Day, coupled with the occurrence of freezing temperatures in some areas that affect vegetable production and transportation, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables has increased. The prices of bitter gourd, cucumber, and beans increased by 8.2%, 6.0%, and 3.7%, respectively, while those of storage-tolerant Chinese cabbage, cabbage, and ginger dropped by 3.1%, 2.9%, and 2.0%, respectively.
The increase in residents’ meat consumption and food processing companies’ stocking were positive. The prices of meat and eggs rose slightly. The prices of pork, lamb, eggs, beef and white broilers rose by 0.8%, 0.8%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Food and edible oil retail prices continued to rise, with prices of rice and flour all rising by 0.4%, and soybean oil, peanut oil and rapeseed oil prices rose by 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. During the holiday season, the demand for aquatic products also increased, and the average wholesale price of 8 kinds of aquatic products rose slightly.
Affected by cold weather, prices may not decline in the short term. UBS's latest report said that since the cold winter will continue for some time and the Lunar New Year is approaching, it is expected that food prices will continue to rise in the first quarter of 2011, while the CPI average increase is still higher than 4.5%.
CI Jian Securities chief economist Zhu Jianfang also believes that there will be a strong inflation pressure in early 2011. He said that the increase in food prices in the current round was mainly affected by the expected increase in food prices. Due to the current increase in food prices, companies have increased their stocks of food raw materials, which will increase the pressure on food prices in the short term.
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